Q1 2026 Market Report: A More Balanced Market Is Taking Shape

M. David Coale
May 4
3 min read

Insights from MD Coale

If you’ve been watching the market over the past few years, you already know how aggressive conditions became. Low inventory, fast-moving deals, and limited negotiating power defined that environment.

Q1 2026 tells a different story.

We are now seeing a market that is beginning to rebalance—and for many buyers and investors, that shift creates opportunity.

The Market Is Slowing… But Not Weakening

Across both NEBOR and GTAR markets, the first quarter showed a clear trend: inventory is rising, homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers are gaining more leverage.

In the NEBOR market specifically:

Inventory increased from 339 in January to 354 in March
Months supply moved from 6.44 to 6.72
Days on market expanded from 57 to 78 days
Average sale price adjusted from $266,648 to $240,194

That combination tells us something important:

The pace has slowed, but the market itself remains stable.

This is not a collapse—it’s normalization.

Buyers Are Regaining Position

One of the most meaningful shifts this quarter is the return of buyer optionality.

As inventory grows and absorption slows:

Buyers have more properties to choose from
There is less pressure to overbid
Negotiation is becoming part of the process again

At the same time, sale-to-list ratios remain relatively strong—hovering in the mid-90% range—meaning:

Well-positioned properties are still selling, just not instantly.

Pricing Is Holding Better Than Volume

Transaction velocity has softened, but pricing has remained more resilient than many expected.

That tells us demand hasn’t disappeared—it’s simply become more selective.

In practical terms:

Buyers are still active
They’re just more analytical
And they’re no longer forced into rushed decisions

This is a healthier market dynamic overall.

GTAR Snapshot: A Broader View

Looking at the GTAR market reinforces the same narrative:

3,484 active listings
3.19 months of supply
$309,527 average sale price
98.24% sale-to-list ratio
52.7 days on market

Compared to NEBOR, GTAR still reflects a somewhat tighter market, but the direction is consistent:

Inventory is building, and balance is returning.

What This Means for Sellers

The strategy has changed.

In a tightening market, exposure alone could carry a deal. In today’s market, that is no longer the case.

Success now depends on:

Strategic pricing from day one
Strong presentation and positioning
Realistic expectations about timing

Sellers who align with the market are still closing successfully. Those who don’t are sitting.

What This Means for Buyers & Investors

This is where things get interesting.

For buyers:

You have time to evaluate decisions
You can negotiate again
You’re not competing in the same frenzy

For investors:

Entry points are improving
Pricing is stabilizing
Long-term equity positioning becomes clearer

From a commercial discipline standpoint, this is the kind of market where:

The numbers start making sense again.

The Bigger Picture

Q1 2026 didn’t signal weakness.

It signaled transition.

We are moving out of an artificially tight environment and into something more sustainable—something where:

Deals can be evaluated properly
Risk can be managed more effectively
And decisions can be made with intention

NEBOR Monthly Metrics

Month	Closed	Pending	New Listings	Inventory	Months Supply	Avg Sale Price	Sale/List Ratio	Days on Market
January	46	48	93	339	6.44	$266,648	93.56%	57.22
February	45	49	95	344	6.53	$261,489	93.83%	65.80
March	49	74	123	354	6.72	$240,194	95.00%	78.20

Final Thought

If you’ve been waiting for the market to “settle,” this is what that looks like.

Not a crash. Not a surge. But a window where strategy matters again.

Ready to Talk?

Whether you’re looking at residential, commercial, or investment opportunities across Northeast Oklahoma or Southwest Missouri, I’m happy to walk through the numbers with you and evaluate the opportunity from a real-world perspective.

MD Coale Licensed in Missouri & Oklahoma